Criteria for the evaluation of alternative environmental monitoring variables: Theory and an application using winter flounder (Pleuronectes americanus) and Dover sole (Microstomus pacificus)

The design of environmental monitoring programs is frequently hampered by a lack of objective, quantitative criteria for evaluating alternative monitoring variables. In this paper we describe two such criteria, which we call samples required — the number of samples required to detect a given change in value — and information imparted — the amount of environmental information revealed by the monitoring variable. We then use these criteria to evaluate fin erosion in winter flounder (Pleuronectes americanus) and Dover sole (Microstomus pacificus) as marine environmental monitoring variables. Two methods for determining the samples required use contaminated and reference areas to estimate the sample statistics of a hypothetical impacted population. The first method is based on the overall difference in the proportions of diseased fish in the reference and hypothetical populations. The second treats the proportion of diseased fish in individual trawls as the variate and determines the samples required based on the mean and variance of the reference and contaminated populations. We use both methods to predict the number of trawls needed to detect an increase of 200% in fin erosion in the reference population. The first method had greater statistical power but assumes spatially homogeneous populations. The second method accounts for environmental patchiness. For Dover sole it predicted 1661 trawls would be needed to detect the 200% increase. An estuarine winter flounder population would require 74 trawls, and an oceanic winter flounder population would require 142.5 trawls. It appears that fin erosion in winter flounder may be a useful indicator of environmental contamination, but several stipulations apply. Migration may inflate the number of diseased fish observed in the reference population, and a more detailed etiology of the disease is required, including an understanding of what contaminants are responsible for manifestation of the disease.     

Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

厦门港和员当湖表层沉积物中的石油烃和多环芳香烃

2002年4月厦门港沿岸设9个站，员当湖设两个站采集表层沉积物，用有机溶剂萃取，硅胶柱色层分离，气相色谱—质谱联机带SIM数据采集系统对样品的石油烃类(M／Z=55)，多环芳香烃类进行分析，结果显示员当湖石油烃和多环芳香烃质量分数分别高达1397和1376．5ng／g。厦门港船只活动，厦门港四周工业废水、车辆燃油滴漏是石油烃和多环芳香烃污染的主要来源。     

肯尼亚米达河红树林森林恢复状况:一个受损害的还是有保障的未来?

本文研究了米达河(南纬3°20',东经40°00')两个红树林森林地区(乌永博和基雷普维)带状横断面的红树林植被的结构和恢复型式.     

The in utero diagnosis and management of alloimmune thrombocytopenia

A case is presented in which percutaneous umbilical sampling (PUBS) was utilized in the second and third trimesters for the diagnosis and management of a pregnancy at risk for neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia (NAIT).     

活性氮和世界:200年的变化

本文通过将19世纪后期和20世纪后期的氮流动情况进行对比,分析了食物和能源生产对全球氮循环的影响.我们虽然对人类产生的活性氮的数量及其释放到环境所产生的主要影响有了充分的认识,但是,我们对于环境库中氮的累积速度缺乏了解,由于积累在环境中的氮具有阶式效应,因此,对其在环境中的积累尚有不明之处.未来活性氮的产生、分布状况及其形成速度增加的可能性(尤其是在亚洲)存在巨大的区域性差异,因而需要制定"总活性氮措施",以优化食物和能源生产,保护环境系统.     

The macro implications of a complete transformation of U.S. agricultural production to organic farming practices

A national interregional linear programming model of U.S. agriculture is used to evaluate and compare two conventional and three organic production alternatives. The objective is to estimate the effects on production, supply prices, land use, farm income, and export potential, of a complete transformation of U.S. agriculture to organic practices. Crop yields and production costs are estimated for 150 producing regions for seven crops under both conventional and organic methods. Results indicate that compared with conventional methods, widespread organic farming leads to a decrease in total production, lower export potential, higher supply prices, higher value of production, lower costs of production, and higher net farm income. The United States domestic crop demand can be met with organic methods, but would be more expensive. Some interregional shifts in crop production would also occur.     

Climate Change and Energy Technologies

The long time scale of the climate change problem and the inherent nature of the carbon cycle bring important implications for present technology development efforts. Even if major technology improvements are achieved for non-carbon-emitting technologies such as energy-intensity improvements, wind, solar, biomass, and nuclear over the course of the 21^st century, most examinations of potential future greenhouse emissions conclude that additional technology development will be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. The evelopment of an expanded suite of technologies including carbon capture and disposal, hydrogen systems and biotechnology hold the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. This paper examines these technologies in the context of a global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, land-use, economics, and carbon cycle processes.     

Energy use and transport correlation linking personal and travel related energy uses to the urban structure

This paper considers relationships between sustainability objectives, transport, spatial design of the built environment and rational use of energy. Conventional transport modelling, housing supply and energy assessment tools are drawn together to provide a common platform for appraisal of city-wide energy use by stationary and mobile sources. The paper outlines methodologies developed for the city of Belfast, Northern Ireland. The paper concludes by briefly reviewing the effect in terms of mobile and stationary energy consumption and travel behaviour of implementing sustainable policy measures in current and future years within the study area.